Monitoring the internal temperature and humidity of shipping containers is essential to preventing quality degradation during cargo transportation. Sensorless monitoring -- machine learning models that predict the internal conditions of the containers using exogenous factors -- shows promise as an alternative to monitoring using sensors. However, it does not incorporate telemetry information and correct for systematic errors, causing the predictions to differ significantly from the live data and confusing the users. In this paper, we introduce the residual correction method, a general framework for correcting for systematic biases in sensorless models after observing live telemetry data. We call this class of models ``adaptive-sensorless'' monitoring. We train and evaluate adaptive-sensorless models on the 3.48 million data points -- the largest dataset of container sensor readings ever used in academic research -- and show that they produce consistent improvements over the baseline sensorless models. When evaluated on the holdout set of the simulated data, they achieve average mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 2.24 $\sim$ 2.31$^\circ$C (vs 2.43$^\circ$C by sensorless) for temperature and 5.72 $\sim$ 7.09% for relative humidity (vs 7.99% by sensorless) and average root mean-squared errors (RMSEs) of 3.19 $\sim$ 3.26$^\circ$C for temperature (vs 3.38$^\circ$C by sensorless) and 7.70 $\sim$ 9.12% for relative humidity (vs 10.0% by sensorless). Adaptive-sensorless models enable more accurate cargo monitoring, early risk detection, and less dependence on full connectivity in global shipping.

This article explores novel data-driven modeling approaches for analyzing and approximating the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a physiologically-based metric integrating multiple atmospheric variables to assess thermal comfort. Given the nonlinear, multivariate structure of UTCI, we investigate symbolic and sparse regression techniques as tools for interpretable and efficient function approximation. In particular, we highlight the benefits of using orthogonal polynomial bases-such as Legendre polynomials-in sparse regression frameworks, demonstrating their advantages in stability, convergence, and hierarchical interpretability compared to standard polynomial expansions. We demonstrate that our models achieve significantly lower root-mean squared losses than the widely used sixth-degree polynomial benchmark-while using the same or fewer parameters. By leveraging Legendre polynomial bases, we construct models that efficiently populate a Pareto front of accuracy versus complexity and exhibit stable, hierarchical coefficient structures across varying model capacities. Training on just 20% of the data, our models generalize robustly to the remaining 80%, with consistent performance under bootstrapping. The decomposition effectively approximates the UTCI as a Fourier-like expansion in an orthogonal basis, yielding results near the theoretical optimum in the L2 (least squares) sense. We also connect these findings to the broader context of equation discovery in environmental modeling, referencing probabilistic grammar-based methods that enforce domain consistency and compactness in symbolic expressions. Taken together, these results illustrate how combining sparsity, orthogonality, and symbolic structure enables robust, interpretable modeling of complex environmental indices like UTCI - and significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art approximation in both accuracy and efficiency.

Policy targets evolve faster than the Couple Model Intercomparison Project cycles, complicating adaptation and mitigation planning that must often contend with outdated projections. Climate model output emulators address this gap by offering inexpensive surrogates that can rapidly explore alternative futures while staying close to Earth System Model (ESM) behavior. We focus on emulators designed to provide inputs to impact models. Using monthly ESM fields of near-surface temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed, we show that deep generative models have the potential to model jointly the distribution of variables relevant for impacts. The specific model we propose uses score-based diffusion on a spherical mesh and runs on a single mid-range graphical processing unit. We introduce a thorough suite of diagnostics to compare emulator outputs with their parent ESMs, including their probability densities, cross-variable correlations, time of emergence, or tail behavior. We evaluate performance across three distinct ESMs in both pre-industrial and forced regimes. The results show that the emulator produces distributions that closely match the ESM outputs and captures key forced responses. They also reveal important failure cases, notably for variables with a strong regime shift in the seasonal cycle. Although not a perfect match to the ESM, the inaccuracies of the emulator are small relative to the scale of internal variability in ESM projections. We therefore argue that it shows potential to be useful in supporting impact assessment. We discuss priorities for future development toward daily resolution, finer spatial scales, and bias-aware training. Code is made available at https://github.com/shahineb/climemu.

--Stochastic Petri Nets (SPNs) are an increasingly popular tool of choice for modeling discrete-event dynamics in areas such as epidemiology and systems biology, yet their parameter estimation remains challenging in general and in particular when transition rates depend on external covariates and explicit likelihoods are unavailable. We introduce a neural-surrogate (neural-network-based approximation of the posterior distribution) framework that predicts the coefficients of known covariate-dependent rate functions directly from noisy, partially observed token trajectories. Our model employs a lightweight 1D Convolutional Residual Network trained end-to-end on Gillespie-simulated SPN realizations, learning to invert system dynamics under realistic conditions of event dropout. During inference, Monte Carlo dropout provides calibrated uncertainty bounds together with point estimates. On synthetic SPNs with 20% missing events, our surrogate recovers rate-function coefficients with an RMSE = 0.108 and substantially runs faster than traditional Bayesian approaches. These results demonstrate that data-driven, likelihood-free surrogates can enable accurate, robust, and real-time parameter recovery in complex, partially observed discrete-event systems.

Sign up for the Slatest to get the most insightful analysis, criticism, and advice out there, delivered to your inbox daily. Summer just started, and the first significant heat wave of the season is almost over. Some 265 million people across the Midwest and the eastern United States have experienced a week of temperatures in the 90s and triple digits, with a slew of all-time records set on Tuesday. While extreme heat waves can be caused by any number of factors, this particular one is thanks to a phenomenon called a heat dome: a ridge of atmospheric pressure that settles over a region like, well, a dome. Or, as the National Weather Service's Alex Lamers so wonderfully described it to NPR, think of it as a lid placed over a grilled cheese, which, as we all know, makes the cheese melt much faster.

Drought poses a pervasive environmental challenge in Bangladesh, impacting agriculture, socio-economic stability, and food security due to its unique geographic and anthropogenic vulnerabilities. Traditional drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), often overlook crucial factors like soil moisture and temperature, limiting their resolution. Moreover, current machine learning models applied to drought prediction have been underexplored in the context of Bangladesh, lacking a comprehensive integration of satellite data across multiple districts. To address these gaps, we propose a satellite data-driven machine learning framework to classify drought across 38 districts of Bangladesh. Using unsupervised algorithms like K-means and Bayesian Gaussian Mixture for clustering, followed by classification models such as KNN, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Naive Bayes, the framework integrates weather data (humidity, soil moisture, temperature) from 2012-2024. This approach successfully classifies drought severity into different levels. However, it shows significant variabilities in drought vulnerabilities across regions which highlights the aptitude of machine learning models in terms of identifying and predicting drought conditions.

This study introduces a new methodology for an Inference Index (InI), called INFerence INdex In Testing model Effectiveness methodology (INFINITE), aiming to evaluate the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) in code generation tasks. The InI index provides a comprehensive assessment focusing on three key components: efficiency, consistency, and accuracy. This approach encapsulates time-based efficiency, response quality, and the stability of model outputs, offering a thorough understanding of LLM performance beyond traditional accuracy metrics. We applied this methodology to compare OpenAI's GPT-4o (GPT), OpenAI-o1 pro (OAI1), and OpenAI-o3 mini-high (OAI3) in generating Python code for the Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) model to forecast meteorological variables such as temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity. Our findings demonstrate that GPT outperforms OAI1 and performs comparably to OAI3 regarding accuracy and workflow efficiency. The study reveals that LLM-assisted code generation can produce results similar to expert-designed models with effective prompting and refinement. GPT's performance advantage highlights the benefits of widespread use and user feedback.

Modern fire management systems increasingly rely on satellite data and weather forecasting; however, access to comprehensive datasets remains limited due to proprietary restrictions. Despite the ecological significance of wildfires, large-scale, multi-regional research is constrained by data scarcity. Russian diverse ecosystems play a crucial role in shaping Eurasian fire dynamics, yet they remain underexplored. This study addresses existing gaps by introducing an open-access dataset that captures detailed fire incidents alongside corresponding meteorological conditions. We present one of the most extensive datasets available for wildfire analysis in Russia, covering 13 consecutive months of observations. Leveraging machine learning techniques, we conduct exploratory data analysis and develop predictive models to identify key fire behavior patterns across different fire categories and ecosystems. Our results highlight the critical influence of environmental factor patterns on fire occurrence and spread behavior. By improving the understanding of wildfire dynamics in Eurasia, this work contributes to more effective, data-driven approaches for proactive fire management in the face of evolving environmental conditions.

In this work, we aim to formalize a novel scientific machine learning framework to reconstruct the hidden dynamics of the transmission rate, whose inaccurate extrapolation can significantly impair the quality of the epidemic forecasts, by incorporating the influence of exogenous variables (such as environmental conditions and strain-specific characteristics). We propose an hybrid model that blends a data-driven layer with a physics-based one. The data-driven layer is based on a neural ordinary differential equation that learns the dynamics of the transmission rate, conditioned on the meteorological data and wave-specific latent parameters. The physics-based layer, instead, consists of a standard SEIR compartmental model, wherein the transmission rate represents an input. The learning strategy follows an end-to-end approach: the loss function quantifies the mismatch between the actual numbers of infections and its numerical prediction obtained from the SEIR model incorporating as an input the transmission rate predicted by the neural ordinary differential equation. We validate this original approach using both a synthetic test case and a realistic test case based on meteorological data (temperature and humidity) and influenza data from Italy between 2010 and 2020. In both scenarios, we achieve low generalization error on the test set and observe strong alignment between the reconstructed model and established findings on the influence of meteorological factors on epidemic spread. Finally, we implement a data assimilation strategy to adapt the neural equation to the specific characteristics of an epidemic wave under investigation, and we conduct sensitivity tests on the network hyperparameters.

Bipolar fuzzy relation equations arise as a generalization of fuzzy relation equations considering unknown variables together with their logical connective negations. The occurrence of a variable and the occurrence of its negation simultaneously can give very useful information for certain frameworks where the human reasoning plays a key role. Hence, the resolution of bipolar fuzzy relation equations systems is a research topic of great interest. This paper focuses on the study of bipolar fuzzy relation equations systems based on the max-product t-norm composition. Specifically, the solvability and the algebraic structure of the set of solutions of these bipolar equations systems will be studied, including the case in which such systems are composed of equations whose independent term be equal to zero. As a consequence, this paper complements the contribution carried out by the authors on the solvability of bipolar max-product fuzzy relation equations.